Uncertainty-Aware Simulation-Based Inference for Operations Research with Large Language Models
Computer Science > Machine Learning Title:Uncertainty-Aware Simulation-Based Inference for Operations Research with Large Language Models View PDF HTML (experimental)Abstract:Deploying large language models (LLMs) for operations research (OR) tasks remains challenging because correctness depends on a coherent modeling process, not merely a correct final answer. Standard autoregressive generation operates on a myopic policy, which sometimes fails to anticipate whether a partial formulation can be validly extended into a globally consistent optimization model. Consequently, locally plausible steps may propagate into catastrophic downstream formulation or solver code errors. To address this, we propose an uncertainty-aware, training-free inference framework for OR mathematical modeling. Without updating model parameters, our method evaluates intermediate candidate steps using short lookahead simulations to quantify downstream predictive uncertainty or probability concentration. Candidates that demonstrate a higher likelihood of yielding coherent mathematical formulations are then dynamically selected via importance resampling. Empirical evaluations across multiple OR benchmarks (including NL4OPT, MAMO, and IndustryOR) demonstrate that our framework consistently outperforms both standard and low-temperature baselines, establishing an efficient, training-free paradigm for reliable OR formulation generation. Bibliographic and Citation Tools Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article Demos Recommenders and Search Tools arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.