The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Is Still Unstable
The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Is Still Unstable There is a brief lull in violence, but the root causes of the conflict haven’t been addressed. Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief. The highlights this week: Calm sets in along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border after months of violence, Bangladesh records 1,300 new cases in a deadly measles outbreak, and India’s satirical Cockroach Janta Party plans to hold its first protest. Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief. The highlights this week: Calm sets in along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border after months of violence, Bangladesh records 1,300 new cases in a deadly measles outbreak, and India’s satirical Cockroach Janta Party plans to hold its first protest. The Calm Before the Storm? A relative calm has set in along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, following heavy violence in recent months from both sides. The fighting is rooted in Pakistan’s contention that the regime is sheltering Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants who carry out attacks in Pakistan. The respite in violence may raise hopes that the border conflict is coming to an end. This week, Pakistan’s Express Tribune reported that Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada had issued a warning to the TTP that the Taliban will cut off its support if the group doesn’t halt its attacks in Pakistan. However, the crisis is far from over—and it could easily boil over again. Akhundzada’s reported warning won’t appease Pakistani officials, who have long argued that the Taliban are unwilling to agree to verification mechanisms that prove the group is in fact curbing the TTP. Islamabad will likely shrug off the remarks as an empty gesture. Another Taliban move might deepen tensions. Last week, Afghanistan signed a military cooperation agreement with Russia. Little information was made public about the deal, but according to Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan, it mainly concerns repairs to Russian-made equipment. Pakistan, though, will worry the Taliban will use the accord with Russia to bolster their capacity to inflict more damage in future conflicts. More broadly, the Taliban have few incentives to implement Pakistan’s core demand. The group is closely allied with the TTP, and it has a track record of not turning on its friends—including al Qaeda when threatened by U.S. military intervention. The Taliban could also face risks if they crack down, from internal rebellions to TTP members joining the Islamic State-Khorasan. This helps explain why multiple rounds of internationally mediated talks have secured cease-fires but no formal commitment from the Taliban to curb the TTP. This includes the most recent round in April, mediated by China, which has considerable leverage over the Taliban because of its investment capital. So, why has border violence subsided? The Iran war is likely a key factor. Pakistan, a prime mediator in that conflict, wants to avoid new provocations along its border with Afghanistan at a critical moment in U.S.-Iran talks. Given that Afghanistan, like Pakistan, shares a border with Iran, the Taliban also want to avoid waging one conflict while grappling with spillover effects from another. But the lull is likely temporary. Pakistan, which has taken on a greater diplomatic role thanks to its mediation on Iran, is unlikely to receive much international pushback if it resumes strikes on Afghanistan. The Taliban will be prepared to retaliate. (The United States and the European Union have expressed support for Pakistan’s right to defend itself.) Pakistan may have been the Taliban’s patron during the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, but tensions are now dangerously high. Mutual trust is undercut by long-standing disagreements, such as Afghanistan’s refusal to formally recognize their shared border. Ultimately, a depressing cycle is likely to continue: Fresh violence will result in more internationally mediated talks, which get both sides to recommit to a cease-fire. But without an agreement that addresses the drivers of the violence, fighting will resume once again. What We’re Following Measles outbreak in Bangladesh. Over the weekend, Bangladesh tallied more than 1,300 new measles cases, bringing the total figure to nearly 71,000 since an outbreak began in March. There have been 585 deaths. Most of those stricken have been children, with four out of five cases among those under 5 years old. (Children have also accounted for most deaths.) Public health experts have faulted the interim government that led Bangladesh from August 2024 until February for failing to maintain a robust vaccination campaign overseen by the previous administration. The UNICEF representative in Bangladesh, Rana Flowers, told reporters last month that she had warned interim government officials of her concern “on at least 10 occasions.” The new government led by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman launched a campaign in April to vaccinate 20 million children, but so far only the first of two required doses has been administered. Indian movement to hold first protest. The satirical Cockroach Janta Party, an online movement that has taken India’s social media by storm, soon plans to hold its first offline protest. The movement’s de facto leader, Abhijeet Dipke, a recent Boston University graduate, announced a demonstration calling for the resignation of India’s education minister. Dipke didn’t indicate when the protest will be, but the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) said that he will return to India on Saturday. The movement has tapped into anger among India’s youth about persistent unemployment, and it has tied its grievances about education policy to the joblessness crisis. Despite its millions of online followers, the movement is likely to have only limited political impact. That’s because Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration remains deeply popular in India—unlike in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, where mass movements have ousted governments in recent years. That said, New Delhi isn’t exactly ignoring or shrugging off the CJP as inconsequential: It blocked the CJP’s X account and has accused the satirical party of trying to curry favor from Pakistanis. Kallas’s gentle warning. The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, visited Islamabad on Monday for the eighth round of the EU-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue. By most accounts, the visit went well for Pakistan, with pledges to deepen cooperation in a range of spheres, from digital infrastructure to climate resilience. Kallas also praised Pakistan for its role as an Iran mediator. However, Kallas had some tough love for Pakistan when discussing its trade relationship with the EU, which she said receives more Pakistani exports than the United States and China combined. Kallas said that for Pakistan to continue to receive preferential access to EU markets, it will need to “demonstrate tangible progress” on good governance, environmental protection, and labor and human rights. For a country currently basking in the global spotlight, this comment may have been jarring. Under the Radar Earlier this year, three flamingos died in Mannar, a wetlands region of northern Sri Lanka, after striking power lines. The tragedy has intensified debates about the risks posed to wildlife by growing energy infrastructure—and development more broadly—in Sri Lanka. The concerns aren’t just about wildlife conservation—they’re also about economics. Flamingos are a major draw for tourism, with area hotels experiencing large surges in occupancy once migratory patterns bring the birds there each year. As it turns out, flamingos have had a tough time in Mannar for some time. Irrigation development in the area in the 1980s and 1990s caused ecological changes, including decreases in freshwater salinity, that drove flamingos to flee. More recently, in 2022, researchers started noticing that photographers using drones to capture the flamingos flocking to Mannar were scaring them away. FP’s Most Read This Week - Trump Should Just Admit He Screwed Up by Stephen M. Walt - There Are Only Four Great Powers by Brendan Simms - Can the State Department Make Europe Great Again? by Sam Skove Regional Voices In South Asian Voices, analyst Ladhu R. Choudhary, writing about a new Indian document outlining the military’s future, argues that it “may serve less as a concrete roadmap for military-political reorientation and reform than a statement of guiding principles [on] the thinking of Indian leadership.” In the Kathmandu Post, educator Usha Pokharel calls on officials to build a library on a large empty plot in Kathmandu. “We would send a definitive signal to the next generation,” she writes. “Your mind matters, your ability to think deeply is an absolute priority, and your literacy is the shield with which you will navigate a crooked world.” A Daily Star editorial decries the rise in deadly mob beatings in Bangladesh: “Civic and moral education that teaches young people to respect the law and rules of the land and to differentiate right from wrong must be mandatory,” it argues. “Incidents of mob violence should not exist at all, let alone be common in a functional democracy.” Michael Kugelman is the writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly South Asia Brief and a senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council. An analyst of the region for nearly two decades, he previously directed the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center. X: @michaelkugelman