This natural gas stock has lots of upside even after U.S.-Iran war ends, JPMorgan says
Venture Global is poised to stage another rally as signs of the Iran war's longer-term impacts on commodities — including natural gas — begin to emerge, according to JPMorgan. The investment bank upgraded the gas name to overweight from neutral. It also hiked its price target on shares to $17 from $16, suggesting 36% upside from Wednesday's close. "We see VG's [liquefied natural gas] volatility value capture, pricing upside and contracting momentum, and growth execution creating a meaningful catalyst path ahead," analyst Jeremy Tonet said in a note to clients. The natural gas provider jumped 62.6% in March, when the U.S.-Iran war began. However, the stock has given up some of those gains, losing 15.8% in April and another 9.3% in May. That's because the market is not fully pricing in the fact that liquefied natural gas will likely continue to experience heightened volatility even if the war ends, according to JPMorgan. Shares are up about 29% since the start of the Iran war. "Pricing has been slow to fully reflect the risk of physical supply displacement," Tenet wrote. "After enjoying a sharp rise at the conflict's beginning, VG has given back much of the gains, and we believe the market underappreciates elevated [liquefied natural gas] volatility continuing." The analyst noted that liquefied natural gas prices could remain elevated following the Iran war due to the considerable infrastructural damage sustained by oil-rich nations such as Qatar. In addition, a new "political risk premium" could keep prices elevated for the foreseeable future. A premium on natural gas should be a boon for Venture Global, according to JPMorgan. "Ultimately, we see these geopolitical developments playing into VG's strengths, leading to outsized margin capture and aiding medium- and long-term contracting," Tonet wrote. JPMorgan's call falls in line with consensus on Wall Street. Of the 18 analysts covering the stock, 10 have a buy or strong buy on shares, LSEG data shows.